Heart failure is becoming increasingly common and places a major strain on people’s lives and on health systems. Many cases could potentially be prevented if we could better identify who is at higher risk early enough. This paper describes the development of SCORE2-HF, a new tool to estimate a person’s chance of developing heart failure (HF) over the next 10 or 30 years. ‑HF, a new tool to estimate a person’s chance of developing heart failure
The authors used factors including smoking status, blood pressure and whether someone takes blood pressure medication, body mass index (BMI), kidney function and whether someone has type-2 diabetes (plus how long they have had diabetes and how well it is controlled).
The researchers then adjusted the tool so it reflects current heart failure rates in four European “risk regions” (Low, Moderate, High and Very High), because rates differ widely across Europe. The tool was tested in three additional large population groups from the UK, Norway and Estonia (over 1.3 million people). It showed good accuracy in predicting who would develop heart failure over time.
SCORE2-HF is a useful development as it uses information readily available in GP settings. and it can help doctors identify people who might benefit from earlier prevention, including lifestyle changes or medications. It is a simple, reliable way to predict heart failure in adults over 40 years old who have not yet had any major cardiovascular disease (like a heart attack or stroke). As it provides both 10-year and 30-year estimates, it gives younger adults a clearer view of their long-term risk.
Many thanks for the CRE for funding this work.